Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.

Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.

Description: From a session at the Spring meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Antonio, Texas, June 14-15, 2004 This session covers different methods for estimating future volatility of financial markets, how to predict the effect of volatility on insurance company results, alternative approaches to managing volatility and the impact on volatility management on the choice of modeling method.

Description: Many insurers preparing market consistent financial statements encounter the issue of developing volatility assumptions for equity options and guarantees that are longer than any observable market data. This presentation develops a generalization of the classical Black Scholes option pricing model that is consistent with the European CRO Forum's framework for valuing non-hedgeable risk. The presentation argues that, with reasonable parameter choices, the model fits observed volatility surfaces well enough that it can be used to estimate implied volatilities where no market data exists.

Description: A presentation on the principle of equivalent utility from the 2001 ARCH. Contains both the static and dynamic model as well as examples with exponential utility.

Description: This model arose from a project to evaluate the cost of a health care access' program to provide comprehensive medical care to uninsureds in Minnesota, for the Minnesota Health Care Access Commission. The project was to provide estimates of the impact on per-person and aggregate costs for various participation percentages in the access program. In order to evaluate those costs, the antiselection model described in this was developed. Of note, this was the ACTUARIAL EDUCATION AND RESEARCH FUND 1991 PRACTITIONERS AWARD WINNER. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 2.

Description: An increasing need exists for the actuary to provide ranges and frequency distributions of possible values instead of providing only mean values. This discussion will cover: projections of asset experience under various economic scenarios, a practical application of profit analysis using scenarios and a deterministic model, exploring possible values by means of stochastic modeling, and a description of the new life contingencies textbook's stochastic approach and application to some practical population and census problems. From Record of the Society of Actuaries 1981, Volume 7, No. 4.

Description: This paper presents a statistical and mathematical method to calculate Stop-Loss Premiums. It also includes a discussion of the paper. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1976, Vol. 28.

Description: This paper develops a theory for the valuation of some kinds of interest sensitive cash flows. A process is derived which takes as input, assumptions about the capital markets and policy holder behaviour, and produces as output interest and decrement assumptions which can be used for conventional actuarial discounting. The methodology is illustrated using some idealized, but tractable, models of conventional non-par whole life insurance. The method is also applied to a simple Universal Life plan. The paper concludes by considering some of the problems encountered when applying the ideas to more practical problems.

Description: We derive formulas for calculating the premiums that should be charged on policies in a discounted cash flow model with tax reserves and required assets that are determined by regulation. We also determine the unique division of required assets into “reserves” and “capital” that allows the product profitability to be correctly evaluated. That is, the profit after capital charges is zero if the product achieves the return assumed in pricing. We illustrate the concepts using whole life insurance and guaranteed minimum death benefit examples.